The term "Rational Fringe" has been used to distinguish our research from the mainstream convictions that financial history was random and could be managed by inspired manipulation of interest rates.

Our models are based upon a thorough review of the highly volatile conclusions of 5 previous new financial eras. This provides forecasts of significant trend changes with enough lead time to formulate strategy. See our notes on the Capitulation Model.

Our original observations were that key financial sectors such as the stock market or the yield curve each recorded similar behaviour patterns through each previous era of great financial booms. 

The conclusion was that these patterns would provide a guide through our wild financial party and that the action would override orthodox financial research and policy making.

DURATION: Our unique research on "New Financial Eras" was completed in the early 1980s. Noting that all prior examples had followed the end of the "old era" of inflation, we initiated our monthly publications in January 1982. Our presentations then always included the main conclusion that "No matter how much the Fed prints, stocks will outperform commodities.". In a period of high inflation, this was controversial.

We have been publishing our BondWorks, ChartWorks and Pivotal Events as well as work from other contributors since the expansion of our team in 1998 under the umbrella of Institutional Advisors, and our subscribers have suffered very little surprise, either up or down from our conservative and successful integration of different disciplines.

METHOD: Rather uniquely, our basic models have anticipated most of the significant trend reversals, usually with enough time for investors to determine policy.

As the time arrives for expected change, our ChartWorks team, using tested technical analysis, independently confirms the probability of change and provides an estimate of the next targets.

The result has been a reliable, conservative "belt and suspenders" approach that works. Critical essays and our track record can be reviewed in our website archives.

SPECIFIC USERS: Our models cover the yield curve, credit spreads, industrial commodities, and the stock markets. We have integrated these essential items into unusually reliable strategies and perspectives for Chief Investment Officers, Portfolio Managers and on the medium to shorter term opportunities, our research is used by stock, bond and metal trading desks. 

In a very compact form, we offer advice on overall investment strategy for CIOs including investment managers in Asia, Australia, Canada, Europe, the U.K and the U.S. as well as some government treasury and/or pension fund operations in Canada. 

The term "investment managers" also includes hedge funds as well as pension funds running some rather aggressive fixed income and equity desks. 

Some international mining companies are also subscribers, whose treasury operations, long range planning departments, or metal trading desks use the research. 

Our value-added contribution to investment management is that during the expected increase in volatility, our models have anticipated most of the major trend changes.

That's usually with enough time and with a confidence sufficient to implement policy in an anticipatory manner rather than in an ad hoc rush. 

Our overall model is based upon the main financial characteristics of previous New Eras, their dramatic climaxes, and subsequent developments.

This makes our long term view rather unique in the history of investment research and the original conclusion that our uniquely thorough research would provide the most reliable guidance through a new financial era has been confirmed.