Institutional Advisors Archive 1998-2001
"Our Thorough Fundamental and Technical Research" HIGHLIGHTS and EQUITY STRATEGIES 2000
"Market In An Awful Stew?" Financial Post NOV 18th 2000 William Hanley's Lunch Money interview with Bob Hoye
"The Critical Call" TIMELY ANALYSIS AUG 25th 2000 - It is worthwhile noting that this has been the biggest and most flamboyant one in financial history. Those in prominent positions in central banking or Wall Street who claim this has not been a bubble obviously have been unfamiliar with the phenomenon. Well, if you can't recognize one as it occurs, it's impossible to forecast the end of one before it occurs.
"The Wager on Central Planners" and "No Need to Worry..." JUL 7th 2000 and JUL 14th 2000 Before the start of this bull market in 1982, our views were controversial. The main one , "no matter how much the Fed prints, stocks will outperform commodities"
"Time To Sell Bank Stocks"
Financial Post JUN 6th 2000 William Hanley quotes Bob Hoye
"Fabulous Cars Fabulous Bull Markets" APR 2000 Glowing stories about sensational automobiles have been frequently published. "Auto Makers Are Cruising Down the Road to Excess" was a headline of a WSJ article which included a description of the Mercedes Gelaendewagon, a SUV with a sticker price of U.S. $135,000 (leather interior optional at $35,000). Arnold Schwarzenegger drives one.
"Some Technical Details 2Q 2000" MAR 20th 2000 THE BIOTECH BLOWOFF - Our approach to identifying the reversal in biotechs is likely applicable to other groups such as telecoms or semi-conductors: - as their speculative action matures.
"1125 AD Was A Really Bad Time To Be A Central Banker" So Many Bubbles, So Little Time Growing up near the Vancouver Stock Exchange might just make you an expert on speculation. At least that’s what happened to Bob Hoye, editor of Institutional Advisors and author of a number of interesting studies about excess and ostentation. Hear Bob's thoughts on the current market, and find out why 1125 AD was a really bad time to be a central banker type - all on this January 21 2000 edition of Wall Street Uncut with Dave Allman!
"The Internet - The New Technology" JAN 11th 2000 Every major advance in communication and transportation has been a marvel to users, a huge stock market celebration and, for the economy, significantly lowered costs. Ultimately, every distinctive innovation matured and was eclipsed by the next one.
"Decade Without End, Amen"
Barron's Online JAN 10th 2000 Comment by Bob Hoye "This action in the Nasdaq is the equivalent of gold in '79"
"Should Dow Be At 36,000? History Says No" Financial Post MAR 23rd 1999 comment By Bob Hoye
"Princely Finance" NOV 1999 - One would have hoped that financial rip-offs committed by medieval princes would have been permanently shelved when liberal enlightenment ended the divine right of kings.
"The Successful Testing of Two Models" 1998-99 HIGHLIGHTS
"Expect Better Than Expected"
Financial Post OCT 18th 2002 William Hanley quotes Bob Hoye.
"Bottoming is a Process Not an Event" 2001 HIGHLIGHTS - Our approach early in the year was to look for the pressured stock groups to capitulate (the corporate bond market did so at the end of November). The ChartWorks called the sharp rally in the Nasdaq and the top in the Dow which, until then, had been playing opposite to each other. There was a probability that the Naz could outperform as the DJIA declined to our end of March target. Instead, its plunge took out the techs and set an important bottom near the end of March.
"Models & Methodology" 1998-2001 PERFORMANCE - Our models are based upon a thorough review of the highly volatile conclusions of 5 previous new financial eras. This provides forecasts of significant trend changes with enough lead time to formulate strategy. At each expected change, the ChartWorks, using uniquely successful technical models, confirms the probability of change.
"Banks and Financials" OCT 12th 2001 - On the fundamentals, most analysts know that a steepening yield curve improves bank operating margins. Normally, that is the case but, as widely touted last year, it was a "New Era", which is not normal. Indeed, conditions continue to be remarkably similar to previous post-bubble years. In which case, steepening is symptomatic of severely diminishing liquidity. Falling stock, lower grade bond prices, commercial real estate, and industrial commodities reflect declining collateral values as well as earnings with which to service debt.
"Back to School (for Policymakers)" AUG 31st 2001 - Quite possibly, we were the first research organization to recognize the mechanism of a New Era and the characteristics of its dramatic climax. This work was essentially completed by 1980 and the briefest summary is provided in our Boom Indicators. These were formally assembled in 1995 with the hope that they would provide a means of identifying the climax of the mania.
"Economic Research" July 2001 Our approach to the economy is unusual in not attempting to interpret Fed policy in order to determine changes in earnings or GDP growth. Instead, we created a set of Boom Indicators based upon the path of key financial series through all 5 previous New Eras. These key fundamentals have anticipated developments the Fed is responding to on an ad hoc basis.
"Efficient Markets" May 28th, 2001 - When it comes to the Efficient Market Theory, most investment veterans would go along with the "trading floor cynic.
"Bond Market Track Record" FIXED INCOME INTRO BOND MARKET TRACK RECORD From September 1998 to May 2001
"Cash Could Be The Next Big Thing"
Financial Post APR 13th 2002 William Hanley's lunch with Bob Hoye.
"Elvis and the Stock Market" APR 10th 2001 - Every New Era, such as ours, has dramatically enhanced the common stock theory of investment. The problem is that this has suffered a severe setback during the severe contraction that has followed each speculative climax.