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FIXED INCOME INTRO
BOND MARKET TRACK RECORD |
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September 1998 Through April 2000
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In 1997, the model
laid out the most likely pattern for bond prices. It has been remarkably
reliable in anticipating significant trend changes since. Typically, this
has allowed time for managers to decide and implement strategic policy.
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At expected turns, both fundamentals
and technicals are reviewed and initial price targets provided. If the
move is potentially major, projected targets are also provided.
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April 2000 Through December 2000
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The depth of our
research into New Eras and their dramatic conclusions has been unique and
essentially concluded by 1980.
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The path for interest rates, the
curve, and spreads through each example has been consistent enough to
provide the basis for our models.
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These, along with other key economic
series, have been integrated in our Boom Indicators. When they reversed in
February/2000 to a warning on the abilities of speculators, we recommended
that pension funds increase the fixed income weighting from 40% to 60% by
selling equities into strength.
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December 2000 Through Present (May
2001)
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The integrated
approach that encompasses stocks, metal prices, and industrial commodities
with our credit market models has provided a sound supplement to
determining overall strategy.
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On the shorter-term, our detailed work
has been useful in implementing tactics on bond, equity, or metal trading
desks.
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Bob Hoye
Editor & Chief Investment Strategist
www.InstitutionalAdvisors.com |
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