GOLD RESEARCH PACKAGE
SECOND QUARTER 2003
HIGHLIGHTS
Near Term: An important low for gold
and gold shares has been expected for the late March-early April window.
This was based upon technical analysis on February 12 (included as
Appendix 1).
The low was 321.5 on April 7 and our March 21
and 28 editions made the "buy" recommended.
Longer Term: Our basic research has
been derived from gold's behaviour relative to the key financial series
through the conclusion of a financial bubble and its consequent
contraction.
This expected gold's bear market to conclude
in the year the mania climaxed. More specifically, once the top was
completed in early 2000 it was automatic that gold's real price and gold
shares would set a secular low around November of 2000 (4).
(This is expanded in the included "Gold Study".)
Fundamentals: The financial forces prevailing during the boom were
likely to overwhelm the increase in jewelry consumption with the
prosperity. Then, on the contraction the increase in gold's demand for
financial reasons would overwhelm the decline in jewelry consumption.
Outlook: Gold and gold shares were expected to initiate a
multi-year (15 to 20 years) bull market around November, 2000.
Our "Checklist For A Bottom" was published on
March 21 and 28. Based upon changes in the treasury curve and credit
spreads, amongst other indicators, the conclusion was "Conditions are very
bullish for gold and gold shares." And recommended "aggressive buying". |
