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HIGHLIGHTS
1998-99
1998
The highlights of 1998 were the successful testing of two models.
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The Boom Indicators reversed to a warning
in March and anticipated the summer top by 3 months.
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The Bank Trading Guide provided a
dramatic sell signal some 4 weeks before the top. The selloff in most
bank indexes ranged between 30% to 40%.
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Tom Peterson's independent work
identified the top in July and projected a 20% decline in the S&P
(4).
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Tom recognized the bottom in early
October and called for the resumption of the bull market.
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After a possible crisis in credit spreads
in August-September, the panic was likely to end in October. The
adverse trend ruined LTCM.
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After October, spreads were expected to
return to narrowing (4).
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The Boom Indicators started to recover in
October and by 1Q99 had returned to a positive reading.
1999
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The highlight was Peterson's
Portfolio of "Top Picks". Up 151% for all of 1999, this
includes long recommendations only without leverage or options.
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The Boom Indicators were positive during
the year and reached their best reading at +12 (+14 is max) at the end
of the year.
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The work of both Tom Peterson and Ross
Clark methodically identified the buying opportunity in October.
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