What's New for Bob Hoye Institutional Advisors the Rational Fringe

Ross Clark Interview

8/27/2017

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Gold and Currencies

HoweStreet.com AUDIO INTERVIEW of ROSS CLARK

Precious Metals
Snippet from August 24, 2017 Pivotal Events

Our “Comfort” position is not yet comfortable.

However, the GDX/Gold continues to build a saucer-bottoming pattern. The lows on the ratio have been 170 in May and 173 in July. At 180 now, it needs to get above the 20-Week ema to set the uptrend. Which is also at 180.

Our other “Comfort’ indicator is the gold/silver ratio and it is not supportive for the sector.

The US dollar is building a base to stage a significant rally.

There could be a liquidity crisis this fall that could pull gold and silver stocks down.

This could set up an ideal low for a sustainable rally for the sector.

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Bob Hoye Interview

8/25/2017

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HoweStreet.com AUDIO INTERVIEW of BOB HOYE

If Central Banks are So Good, Why 19 Recessions Since They were Invented?
Hurricane Should Not Boost Oil Much

The Fed Follows the T-Bill
Snippet from August 24, 2017 Pivotal Events

This (chart above) is what’s behind our call for a “Fed Cut” in October.

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Ross Clark Interview

8/19/2017

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HoweStreet.com AUDIO INTERVIEW of ROSS CLARK

New Hindenburg Alert

New Hindenburg Alert
Snippet from August 17, 2017 Chartworks

A new Hindenburg signal was generated on August 16th. This follows the signal in May and its confirmation in June. That combination resulted in a minor correction to the 50-day moving average in the S&P. The current signal comes on the heels of what was a very close call on August 8th when only one ingredient was missing from the strict rules.

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Bob Hoye Interview

8/18/2017

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The Warning Signs the Markets have Peaked
Not yet time to rush to Gold

HoweStreet.com AUDIO INTERVIEW of BOB HOYE

Snippet from August 17, 2017 Pivotal Events

OPEC is providing an artificially high bid.
Bureaucrats can do stupid things.
American shale entrepreneurs have been selling forward.

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Bob Hoye Interview

8/10/2017

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HoweStreet.com AUDIO INTERVIEW of BOB HOYE

Could Gold Replace the “FANGS” as the Market’s Darling? - Dow Run-Up Eerily Predictable

Technical Excess DJIA
Snippet from August 10, 2017 Pivotal Events

As widely reported, the latest run in the venerable Dow was exceptional. By our measures, the strongest since the summer of 2007 when the action registered an Upside Exhaustion, which is momentum. Also registered was a Sequential (9) Sell, which is pattern.

The Dow rally was essentially driven by dollar weakness. What happens when the DX goes up?

In that fateful year, 2007, the September target was eclipsed with the peak being set on October 11.

This time around, the Dow has also accomplished an Upside Exhaustion and the Sequential (9) Sell.

A seasonal chart updated for the period 1983 to 2010, indicates the key high occurring in late August. The next low would be in late October.

We have been looking for a “thrust” into September. The recent “surge” will do, very nicely. On our target for the high, it can be centered in September, with the actual high possible in late August or early October.

Conditions for the completion of this bull market are as clear as they were in August 2007. That’s just using the action in the stock market. The conclusion is supported by developments in credit markets, the dollar and industrial commodities.

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Ross Clark Interview

8/5/2017

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Canadian and US Dollars

HoweStreet.com AUDIO INTERVIEW of ROSS CLARK

Currency and Precious Metal Reversals
Snippet from August 5, 2017 Chartworks

Technical excesses were reported on July 25th when the Canadian Dollar produced daily RSI readings over 80, Upside Exhaustion Alerts and a TD Sequential 13 sell. This week saw the price reverse lower. The COT numbers are now at extremes not seen since 2013, when the currency was at par with the US.

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Bob Hoye Interview

8/4/2017

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HoweStreet.com AUDIO INTERVIEW of BOB HOYE

US Dollar Under Unrelenting Pressure - Are things setting up for another economic storm in Europe?

Stock Markets
Snippet from July 27, 2017 Pivotal Events

Is the market up when it should be? Yes. On the last Springboard Buy in April we had a target for speculative excesses to be reached at “around June”.

Are there signs of speculation? Technical indicators have reached excesses only seen near major stock market peaks.

How sound is the fundamental story? The Trump “reformation” will significantly improve the economy. Which while “in the market” is not yet in place. But it brought the public in. Ironically, central bankers continue to add equities to their reserves.

As the ChartWorks noted a couple of weeks ago, the slide in the dollar is materially helping on the recent advance. In turn, this has been exciting London and European stock markets.

Along with the probability of a speculative thrust into early summer, was that the NY market would also make a thrust into September.

Other support has been likely from industrial commodities being firm into August. It adds up to new highs for the senior indexes as well as confirmation of the bull market with the Transports making new highs a week ago. This was also the case in July 2007.

This is similar to the patterns in 2007. In which case, the action in the credit markets is critical. In this regard, there is no need to limit the examples. Bull markets become overdone and become vulnerable to changes in the curve and spreads. And at extremes, there is no evidence of the senior central bank preventing the reversal.

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Ross Clark Interview

Bob Hoye Interview

Ross Clark Interview

Bob Hoye Interview

Bob Hoye Interview

Ross Clark Interview

Bob Hoye Interview

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